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Diabetes -- KOL Insight and Consensus Outlook

Product Code:
Publication Date:
December 2013
Latest Update Bulletin:
November 2014
PDF, 224 Pages & Excel, Data File

FirstWord’s Therapy Trends: Diabetes offers a complete ongoing analysis of current trends, future forecasts and landscape modifiers. Gain instant access to an accurate, unbiased, qualitative review of the latest treatment trends along with a five-year quantitative diabetes market forecast. This comprehensive research is available in two modules:

  • KOL Insight: Diabetes module provides a complete review and is enhanced with exclusive in-depth interviews with leading KOLs from the US and Europe
  • Consensus Outlook: Diabetes data analysis module provides annual historical and forecast product-level sales data from an average of leading equity analysts’ projections

The diabetes market will continue on an upward trajectory, and an estimated 5 year CAGR of 11 percent will see the sector top US$54 billion – the question is which companies will have a slice to this market, and how big will it be? Finding market voice for new products in diabetes depends critically on price and differentiation. Cost of treatment is already an issue and resistance can be expected from health payers if new products offer only marginal therapeutic or patient management benefits.

What the Future Holds: is there a Game Changer on the Horizon?

The real prize will be for the company that can bring a paradigm shift to the treatment of diabetes. Upsetting the status quo will require a fundamentally different approach - and some of these developments threaten the diabetes drugs manufacturers existing revenues.

Among the developments to be aware of are the threat of biosimilars, the development of an artificial pancreas 'closed loop' system, the wide implementation of which would be a doomsday development for drugs companies, and a DNA reverse vaccine for which early clinical results have shown promising results.

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KOL Insight: Key Features and Benefits

Therapy Trends KOL Insight: Diabetes analyses the current and predicted key issues, current products and late-stage pipeline product and gives you qualitative information based on exclusive interviews with 12 key opinion leaders (KOLs) who are leading clinicians working in diabetes in the US and Europe.

Their views on specific drugs and treatment pathways provide a unique front line perspective from those working in clinical setting. The results of these detailed and extensive interviews are incorporated though out the text so they can be read in the context of the issue or product being discussed.

  • Complete coverage of all sub sectors - Basal, Prandial and Premixed insulins, DPP-IV inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists/analogues, SGLT-2 inhibitors, Thiazolidinediones and other non insulin anti diabetics
  • Assessment of current leading diabetes products by sub sector
  • Analysis of late-stage pipeline diabetes therapies by sub sector
  • Competitive evaluation of leading players
  • Current thinking and trends in the treatment of diabetes
  • Predicted KOL treatment trends and market leaders
  • Regular Update Bulletins that include expert insight and analysis based on FirstWord analyst re-engagement with the KOLs after major events such as product approvals, key data releases and major conferences to deliver the most valuable insights with each update.
    • The August 2014 update includes information on Toujeo, Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim’s Abasria, Novo Nordisk’s Xultophy/IDegLira, peglispro


  • Dr Elif Oral, MD, Associate Professor of Endocrinology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
  • Dr Sonal Singh, MD, MPH, Assistant Professor, Division of General Internal Medicines, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
  • Dr Carol Wysham, MD, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicines, University of Washington School of Medicine, Washington.
  • Dr Joel Zonszein, MD, Director of the Clinical Diabetes Center at the University Hospital Albert Einstein College of Medicine, a Division of Montefiori Medical Center, NY.
  • Requested anonymous, Associate Professor of Medicine, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Duke University, Durham, NC.

European KOLs

  • Professor Bernard Charbonnel, MD, Professor of Endocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, University of Nantes; Head of the Internal Medicine, Endocrinology and Diabetes Department, Hôtel Dieu, University Hospital of Nantes, France.
  • Professor Melanie Davies, MD, Honorary Consultant, Diabetes, University Hospital Leicester, Leicestershire, UK.
  • Professor Marc Donath, MD, Director, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Clinical Nutrition, University Hospital, Basel, Switzerland.
  • Professor Jens Holst, MD, Professor of Medical Physiology, Department of Biomedical Sciences; Director of the Research Cluster for Diabetes and Obesity; Vice Chairman, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
  • Professor John Wilding, MD, Head of the Department of Obesity and Endocrinology, University of Liverpool, UK.
  • 2 Anonymous German Key Opinion Leaders

Key Topics Covered:

Current diabetes marketplace Current marketed therapies
Epidemiology Pipeline therapies
Aetiology Unmet needs
Diagnosis Current treatment algorithm
Current treatment landscape Future treatment algorithm
Reimbursement of key diabetes brands Future developments in Diabetes


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Consensus Outlook: Key Features and Benefits

Therapy Trends Consensus Outlook: Diabetes is an in-depth forecast report based on consensus figures from 13 leading analysts. Rich in tables and charts, the report maps the impact of future events to predict product and company performance. In addition, gain access to an interactive forecast data analysis spreadsheet comparing critical market parameters including market size, product sales, market shares and competitive status over the period 2007 to 2017.

Report Features:

  • Historical diabetes sales from 2007–2012
  • Forecast diabetes sales from 2013-2017
  • Key competitors and drug developers
  • Current and late-stage pipeline drugs
  • Future event mapping to forecast data points
  • Expected impacting factors on global forecasts

Key Benefits:

  • • Chart predicted market growth and product sales
  • • Map your own market parameters
  • • Tailor your strategic and investment focus
  • • Assess your current and future sales resources
  • • Set proactive launches and branding strategies


Analysts Compared:

Barclays Capital Merrill Lynch
Credit Suisse Morgan & Stanley
Deutsche Bank Societe Generale
Goldman & Sachs Stifel Nicolaus
International Strategy & Investment UBS
Jefferies Wells Fargo
JP Morgan  


Product Forecasts Covered:

Lantus (insulin glargine; Sanofi) Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk)
Levemir (insulin detemir; Novo Nordisk) Lyxumia (lixisenatide; Sanofi)
Tresiba (insulin degludec; Novo Nordisk) BI-10773 (empagliflozin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly)
Ryzodeg (degludecPlus; Novo Nordisk) Forxiga (dapagliflozin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca)
NovoRapid/NovoLog (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk) Actos (pioglitazone; Takeda)
Humalog (insulin lispro; Eli Lilly) U300 (insulin glargine; Sanofi)
Apidra (insulin glulisine; Sanofi) LY2605541 (insulin peglispro; Eli Lilly)
NovoMix/NovoLog Mix (insulin aspart + insulin aspart protamine; Novo Nordisk) LY2963016 (biosimilar insulin glargine; Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim)
Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co) IDeglira (liraglutide + insulin degludec; Novo Nordisk)
Galvus franchise (vildagliptin; Novartis) Afrezza (Technosphere Insulin; MannKind Corporation)
Onglyza franchise (saxagliptin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca/ Otsuka) FIAsp (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk)
Nesina franchise (alogliptin; Takeda) LY2189265 (dulaglutide; Eli Lilly)
Tradjenta franchise (linagliptin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) Eperzan (albiglutide; GlaxoSmithKline/Human Genome Sciences)
Byetta (exenatide; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca/Amylin) Invokana (canagliflozin; Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe)
Bydureon (exenatide once-weekly; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca/ Amylin)  


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KOL Insight Update Bulletins Offer Ongoing Benefits

The world of pharma is ever changing and executives must always be up-to-date with new developments that could affect their own products, position and research. That is why FirstWord’s guarantee to keep Therapy Trends clients up to date with Update Bulletins offers a real commercial advantage.

  • Update Bulletins include expert insight and analysis based on FirstWord analyst re-engagement with the KOLs after major events such as product approvals, key data releases and major conferences to deliver the most valuable insights with each update.
  • Your Therapy Trends Report purchase includes access to Update Bulletins once published

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